Seattle Just Came In Last. The Story Isn't Finished.

Seattle just came in last

The newest S&P Cotality Case-Shiller release, published October 27, ranked Seattle weakest for home-price performance among the 20 major U.S. metros it tracks. The headline is real, but the story isn't finished. This piece draws on the Realogics Sotheby's International Realty Market Perspectives report, "The Seattle Housing Trough: A History Lesson and a Look Ahead," published October 28.

The headline numbers

Per the release, Seattle prices fell about 2.0% year over year while San Francisco rose 3.4%. Nationally, prices rose about 2.1%, which still trails 3.4% inflation, so the national index has now lost ground in inflation-adjusted terms for 15 months running.

The catch: this is the rearview mirror

That data ends in August, and it's a three-month average, so it mostly reflects deals negotiated last spring and summer. To see where the market is now, you have to look at newer numbers.

Supply is up, a lot

RSIR's single-family resale figures for King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap counties are more current. In September there were 9,678 active listings, up 31% from a year earlier, and the preliminary October 1 to 26 count was 9,241, up 38%. Closed sales fell 8% in September and are down 16.3% so far in October. With 3.4 months of inventory, this is a balanced market in which buyers hold more of the cards.

Prices have stalled, not collapsed

The median sold price in September was $745,000, flat year over year, and the average was about $952,000, up 0.4%. Homes averaged 35 days on market, or 42 counting relists. Fewer bidding wars and more negotiation match the report's note that sold-to-list ratios are falling.

My read

A correction is here, but a bottom is not confirmed. One early signal is worth noting: October pending sales are down only 3.9% while closings are down 16.3%, which may point to a less negative pipeline, though it is too early to call it stabilization. What would change my mind is a run of rising pending sales, faster absorption of inventory, shorter days on market and back-to-back monthly price gains. We don't have those yet.

If you're buying

You have 31% more homes to choose from than a year ago, and real room to negotiate on price, credits, inspections and terms. Rates still bite, so shop the monthly payment rather than just the price. You don't need to call the bottom; you need the right home on the right terms.

If you're selling

Price to compete instead of testing the market with a high number, because buyers are comparing your home against more than 9,000 other listings. Preparation and presentation matter again. Your first weeks on the market are when you have the most attention, so don't spend them on a wishful price.

The wildcard

San Francisco is outperforming us. Is AI wealth part of the reason? Possibly, but the report is clear that it isn't proven. Microsoft and Amazon reshaped this region once. AI employers are growing here now, and much of their employees' equity isn't liquid yet. If that wealth lands locally, today may look like a window in hindsight. That is a scenario, not a forecast.

Real estate is local

Regional averages aren't your street. If you want to know what's actually happening in your neighborhood, send me a note or call (425) 448-6288 and I'll walk you through the numbers.

Aditya Kasturi, Broker, Realogics Sotheby's International Realty, (425) 448-6288. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, October 27, 2026 (August 2026 data); Realogics Sotheby's International Realty, Market Perspectives, "The Seattle Housing Trough: A History Lesson and a Look Ahead" (October 28, 2026), including RSIR single-family resale statistics for King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap counties (September 2026) and a supplied October 1 to 26, 2026 dashboard. October figures are preliminary, and the regional figures have not been independently audited. Market data is descriptive, not a guarantee of future performance.